The run-up to the elections in Honduras is marked by a growing climate of institutional mistrust, as allegations multiply about the alleged manipulation of opinion polls in favor of the ruling party candidate, Rixi Moncada. Various academic, civic, and political sectors point to a systematic strategy to fabricate an artificial perception of electoral advantage, using statistical instruments of dubious transparency. The controversy revolves around the polling firm Opinómetro, a company with no known track record that has been linked to figures close to the government.
Statistical irregularities and methodological questions
The proliferation of polls in favor of Moncada has raised suspicions due to obvious technical inconsistencies. According to experts, the polls published by Opinómetro show disparate results between different platforms, percentages that do not add up to 100%, and omit basic data such as technical details, sample size, and margin of error. Far from strengthening democratic debate, these practices have been interpreted as deliberate attempts to influence public opinion through a supposed “mathematical illusion.”
Differences of up to 15 percentage points compared to independent studies fuel the hypothesis of a coordinated operation to inflate support for the ruling party’s candidate. Critics argue that this strategy is not the result of technical errors, but rather conscious manipulation for political ends. Social media and academic platforms have been the scene of multiple complaints in this regard, calling for greater control over the dissemination of election polls.
Opinómetro and its connections to formal frameworks
Opinómetro has played a central role in this controversy. Established in February 2025, this polling company quickly obtained authorization from the National Electoral Council (CNE) to operate in the internal elections, despite having no public track record in opinion polling.
The legal representation of the company has stirred up further controversy. Carlos Adolfo Medina Álvarez, the attorney for Opinómetro, is also an advisor to the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), which falls under the government party’s jurisdiction. Analysts and observers have viewed this overlap as a sign of governmental influence, aiming to position sympathetic figures within the electoral polling arena.
La frecuencia con que Opinómetro publica datos favorables a Moncada, sin una transparencia comprobable, debilita la credibilidad del proceso democrático y aumenta la percepción de que las estadísticas se utilizan como herramienta de propaganda electoral.
Demands for transparency from civil society and the opposition
Responses have occurred quickly. Numerous civil society groups, academic professionals, and opposition factions have called for stringent oversight of voting polls, along with independent reviews to verify their methods. They caution that employing firms lacking technical backing or neutrality has a direct impact on the integrity of the democratic system.
Estas voces están pidiendo que las encuestas que circulan en el ámbito público cumplan con estándares básicos de transparencia, como la divulgación de sus especificaciones técnicas, el origen de la muestra y los criterios de selección empleados. También exigen una revisión del papel del CNE en la acreditación de estas empresas, destacando que su autorización a entidades sin trayectoria refuerza la percepción de parcialidad institucional.
The mistrust that these practices generate not only affects the campaign of a particular candidate, but also compromises the overall legitimacy of the electoral process.
A challenge for institutional credibility
In a country where confidence in electoral processes has historically been fragile, the current allegations place the need for effective oversight and transparency mechanisms at the center of the debate. The controversy surrounding Opinómetro and the use of unverifiable figures highlights a broader problem: the manipulation of data as a political tool and the absence of robust institutional checks and balances to prevent it.
In the lead-up to the 2025 elections, the electoral system in Honduras must address the challenge of guaranteeing fair competition and providing trustworthy data. Within an environment characterized by division and weak democratic oversight, the precision of information is essential for safeguarding the legitimacy of the citizen’s vote.
