Five months before the general elections on November 30, the ruling Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party faces a critical juncture marked by internal divisions, allegations of corruption, and a sharp decline in voting intentions. In an increasingly uncertain electoral scenario, the ruling party’s accumulated wear and tear threatens to end its tenure in power.
Breakdown in unity and internal conflicts
The selection of Rixi Moncada as the ruling party’s candidate exposed tensions that had been building within LIBRE. The subsequent resignation of Congressman Jorge Cálix, a long-time member of the organization, revealed deep disagreements over the party’s political direction and leadership style. Cálix, along with other leaders who also left the party, denounced authoritarian practices and a culture of exclusion.
In response, the party leadership called for demonstrations in support of both President Xiomara Castro and Moncada herself. However, these actions failed to reverse the perception of a weakened organization and have been interpreted by various sectors as attempts to retain political control in the midst of an adverse environment.
Embezzlement controversies and transparency inquiries
The crisis worsened with the revelation of alleged irregularities in the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), where deputies affiliated with the ruling party were accused of diverting funds allocated to social programs. The most emblematic case was that of Congresswoman Isis Cuéllar, whose suspension was announced along with the cancellation of social funds and an unprecedented measure: the collective resignation of the party from legislative immunity.
Despite the apparent forcefulness of these decisions, opposition sectors, especially the National Party, described them as symbolic maneuvers intended to divert attention. According to their spokespersons, the ruling party’s actions have not involved real sanctions or effective investigations to ensure accountability.
Unrest in the private sector and appeals to stop the decline in institutions
Criticism has not been limited to the political sphere. Leading voices in the business sector have expressed concern about the country’s direction. In a recent public statement, Eduardo Facussé, former president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Cortés (CCIC), directly blamed the government for betraying the popular mandate with practices that, according to him, include nepotism, discretionary use of public funds, and lack of transparency in emblematic cases such as SEDESOL, the Koriun scam, and allegations of links to criminal networks.
Facussé warned of the weakening of institutions and called on citizens to defend the rule of law in the face of what he considered an attempt to consolidate an authoritarian and financially unsustainable model.
Decline in survey results and reshaping of the voting landscape
The latest surveys show a swift drop in LIBRE’s voter support. Based on information gathered from May to June, backing for the current party has varied from 11% to 28.5%, significantly lower than the 42% seen in March. This decrease, along with inconsistencies across surveys, indicates a divided electoral base looking for other options.
Simultaneously, rival candidates like Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura have made headway, achieving backing levels between 25% and 36%. Public approval also reflects the declining image of the government: President Xiomara Castro has an average score of merely 4.1 out of 10, amidst an environment characterized by ongoing scandals and an increasing sense of ineffectiveness.
An uncertain outlook for the ruling party
The existing scenario poses a significant challenge for LIBRE. Internal turmoil, institutional decline, eroded trust, and public disapproval have undermined its standing prior to the general elections. Continuing on this path, the ruling party faces the potential of not just forfeiting control of the executive office but also jeopardizing the political initiative that led to its rise in 2021.
In this scenario, the outcome will depend on the party’s ability to rebuild its internal structure, address social demands, and offer clear responses to allegations of corruption. Otherwise, the November 30 election could mark a turning point in Honduran politics.
