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The national elections in Honduras, set for November 30, 2025, are unfolding amidst political unrest and institutional scrutiny. The electoral scene is defined by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies, while the opposition struggles to form a cohesive alternative. Indications of democratic decline and tensions between pivotal institutions, like the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, spark worries regarding the process’s transparency and legitimacy.
The political landscape in Honduras is marked by a split opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party engage in discussions to create a joint effort. Nonetheless, internal conflicts and disagreements over leadership roles and agendas have made it challenging to establish a robust partnership. The recent primary elections exhibited logistical issues and saw low participation, which heightened concerns about the voting system and led to increased criticism of how institutions are managed.
Institutional control and tensions in the electoral process
The Nodos analysis indicates that democracy in Honduras is experiencing strain, with the governing party holding onto power by exerting structural influence over institutions. This context has led to potential scenarios such as the persistence of the present system, institutional gridlock, or even a constitutional crisis. Concerns about the neutrality and effectiveness of the process have been heightened due to tensions between the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, which manage electoral logistics. Furthermore, the absence of electoral reforms and ongoing political division escalate the chances of disputes following the elections.
Different sectors of civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure an open and inclusive voting process, adhering to democratic principles to maintain the country’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with institutional power, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system suggests the potential for an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.
Potential alliances of the opposition and the reactions from those in power
In response to the current context, the Liberal and National parties have begun formal talks to explore a possible opposition coalition with the aim of challenging the LIBRE Party in the upcoming elections. These meetings have addressed mechanisms for electoral unity, the distribution of candidacies, and a common agenda focused on the defense of democracy, the market economy, and respect for the constitutional order. The opposition parties point out that the government of Xiomara Castro and her advisor Manuel Zelaya have promoted measures aimed at concentrating power, such as the use of the Public Ministry to take action against opponents, attempts to control the CNE, and proposals for constitutional reforms.
If an alliance is established, the two longstanding parties might collectively represent over half of the voters, based on the latest surveys. The union is seen by both social and economic sectors as a plausible option to curb the governing party’s advancements. Meanwhile, the ruling party has minimized the significance of a potential opposition coalition, asserting that it fails to present solutions for the nation. The electoral process in 2025 appears to be shaping up as a choice between continuing the foundational project championed by LIBRE and reverting to a republican, pro-investment approach supported by a united opposition. The results will determine Honduras’s political and institutional path.
