Adverse scenario for Rixi Moncada according to latest polls in Honduras

The most recent surveys on voter intentions reveal an unforeseen shift in the presidential race in Honduras. Rixi Moncada, the candidate from the ruling party, has experienced a continuous decrease in poll results, creating fresh obstacles for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) as they aim to stay in leadership during the general elections set for November 30.

Continuous drop in voting preferences

Statistics provided by research companies like Paradigma, Pro-Encuestas, and national news organizations such as HCH indicate a significant drop in backing for the candidate of the ruling party. The Paradigma survey, carried out from May 4 to 17, shows Moncada securing just 11.3% of the votes, falling behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party (25.6%) and Nasry Asfura from the National Party (21.2%). In that same survey, 13.9% of respondents mentioned they were undecided.

At the same time, the Pro-Encuestas poll from June 5 to 7 indicates a small increase for Moncada, reaching 28.5%, yet still trailing Asfura at 36.3% and Nasralla at 34.2%. In contrast, on June 12, HCH reported that the voting intention for Moncada stood at about 16%, whereas Asfura had 45%, with Nasralla’s numbers falling between 25% and 35%.

This drop differs from the March data, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada with roughly 44.9% voter support. The variation signifies a notable fall in under three months, amidst a political atmosphere characterized by intense rivalry and increasing voter fragmentation.

Redrawing the political landscape

The shift in voter preferences not only highlights a decline in the incumbent party’s nominee but also showcases a rise in the opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura repeatedly rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting an impending transformation of the political arena by November.

In this situation, the amount of voters who are still uncertain is an important factor. Even though some newer surveys don’t include this group, figures from May reveal that nearly one out of seven voters hasn’t made up their mind yet. This unpredictability in public sentiment allows for potential shifts in the existing pattern, contingent upon the impact of the campaigns during the last phase.

Responses and approaches of the governing party

In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started reevaluating its stance. Party representatives blame the drop in polls on what they describe as “misinformation efforts” by opposing groups. Nonetheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity for immediate strategic revisions, such as transformations in the political messaging, the campaign team, and the methods of engaging with voters.

Six months before the elections, the challenge for the ruling party lies not only in regaining ground against its rivals, but also in rebuilding a more solid support base in a context of growing competition. The room for maneuver is narrowing as the electoral calendar advances, and the coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Moncada’s candidacy manages to reposition itself or whether the current trend consolidates.

A situation full of underlying conflicts

The election scene in Honduras is moving toward a more competitive race than was anticipated at the start of the year. The decline in backing for the candidate of the governing party, the emergence of opposition groups, and the influence of undecided voters cast doubt on the political system’s capability to manage the increasing electoral enthusiasm.

The way campaigns develop, the actions taken by institutions in response to potential conflicts, and the involvement of the public will be crucial elements in a procedure that appears to be an essential examination of the nation’s democratic steadiness.