_-_copia.jpeg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Elections in Honduras")
In Honduras’s political landscape, the upcoming general elections in November 2025 are emerging as a critical point for the nation’s democratic future. Several commentators, opposition figures, and elements from civil society have highlighted that the absence of cohesion among opposition groups might enable the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party to strengthen its leading status in governance. This scenario prompts fears that the nation might embrace a governance system akin to that found in other Latin American countries where power concentration has reduced institutional counterbalances.
The electoral landscape is characterized by significant tensions. The ongoing state of emergency, the oversight of critical entities like the National Electoral Council (CNE), and the enactment of laws under non-transparent conditions have heightened concerns about potential institutional deterioration. Further complicating the situation are recent opposition demonstrations and international cautions stressing the need to uphold the democratic process’s integrity. Thus, the nation finds itself at a pivotal juncture, where the opposition’s capacity to formulate a unified strategy will be crucial for influencing the power dynamics.
The risk of opposition fragmentation and the consolidation of LIBRE
The division within the Honduran opposition remains a significant obstacle for those aiming to avoid power consolidation by LIBRE. In the National Congress, the power dynamics have altered with the exit of prominent individuals like Jorge Cálix, complicating the formation of majorities and emphasizing the vulnerability of legislative agreements. Presently, the National Party holds 43 seats, LIBRE possesses 41, the Liberal Party boasts 35, and the remaining seats are allocated to smaller and independent parties, necessitating ongoing dialogue to approve significant proposals.
LIBRE, on its side, has aimed to solidify its hold on institutions by trying to lead the CNE throughout the election process and keeping its sway in the Supreme Court of Justice. This pursuit of dominance has been met with opposition from rival parties, who perceive it as a threat to the election’s fairness and integrity. Moreover, the ongoing role of Defense Minister Rixi Moncada as a presidential candidate without stepping down has sparked ethical concerns and is seen as an indicator of the governing party’s ambition to retain power.
The gamble on a grand coalition and the future of democracy
In this context, some have suggested that forming a large opposition alliance is the sole effective strategy to stop LIBRE’s progress. This alliance could bring together individuals like Salvador Nasralla, factions within the National Party, centrist liberals, newly formed movements, and independent leaders. The aim would be to reestablish constitutional stability, prevent populist trends from gaining ground, boost the economy, and unite the nation with a national unity agenda.
However, building this coalition confronts challenges arising from suspicion, specific goals, and a past marked by internal conflicts. Failure to align efforts could result in a significant error, aiding the establishment of a one-party system and the undermining of democratic controls. With elections planned for November 30, 2025, there’s limited time to craft a strong response, and various segments of Honduran society view the potential for institutional backsliding as a genuine concern.
