A little over four months before the general elections on November 30, Honduras is undergoing an institutional crisis marked by the concentration of power, tensions between state powers, and a growing climate of public mistrust. At the center of this situation is Manuel “Mel” Zelaya Rosales, former president and current general coordinator of the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party, identified by various sectors as the main political strategist of the ruling party and a key figure in shaping the pre-election scenario.
Political control and institutional apparatus
Since coming back to politics following the 2009 coup, Zelaya has established a network of influence that surpasses party leadership. His reach spreads to the executive arm under his wife, President Xiomara Castro, as well as the National Congress and independent entities like the National Electoral Council (CNE), by strategically placing allies and relatives in key roles.
Analysts and local newspapers concur that this decision-making centralization is an intentional tactic by Zelaya to fortify LIBRE’s dominance over governmental bodies. One of the frequent criticisms involves the preferential allocation of public assets and processes to benefit party agendas, leading to concerns regarding the nation’s democratic condition.
Challenges within the election commission and lack of public confidence
One of the main sources of institutional tension is the CNE, whose independence has been called into question due to internal blockages, external pressure, and disputes among its members. Opposition sectors and civil society organizations have warned of the risk of an electoral process controlled by the ruling party, which increases the possibility of challenges, conflict, and the erosion of democratic legitimacy.
Organizations related to LIBRE, known for spearheading protests and blockades backing the government, have also faced allegations of pressuring election officials. The increasing belief that institutions are being manipulated has undermined trust in the process, creating a climate of division and dissatisfaction that may lead to low voter turnout, demonstrations, or events of electoral unrest.
Controversies, strategies, and internal conflicts
Amid this situation, Zelaya’s entourage has been rocked by episodes that have weakened the ruling party’s image. The most recent, linked to the so-called “narco-video,” has led to the resignation of figures close to the former president and tensions within the government. Although Zelaya has sought to distance himself from these events, his role as a political operator has been key in negotiating internal agreements to prevent further fractures within LIBRE.
Even amid the challenges, Zelaya has succeeded in keeping the party united by building coalitions and resolving conflicts that endangered the governing party’s political agenda. This flexibility strengthens his position as a crucial leader for the ruling party’s governance, but it also subjects him to significant scrutiny regarding the present democratic landscape.
A key figure in the configuration of power
Zelaya’s journey from being removed from office in 2009 to holding his current role demonstrates his capacity to impact the national discourse and mold the nation’s political landscape. As the originator of LIBRE and the mastermind behind its ascendancy in 2021, he has been pivotal in the party’s strategic choices, even amid crises and clashes with traditional factions.
To opponents, Zelaya is seen as the primary hindrance to democratic bodies; to backers, he is viewed as a political figure who has challenged the established elites and advocated for a national rebuilding plan. This division reveals a significant split within Honduran society, where political personalities evoke both strong approval and disapproval.
A vague outlook before the voting period
Mel Zelaya’s role in the Honduran political landscape raises questions about the country’s institutional direction and the transparency of the upcoming electoral process. The combination of power concentration, internal tensions within the electoral bodies, and scandals that erode public confidence creates an environment of high uncertainty.
With the electoral calendar advancing and political divisions growing, Honduras faces the challenge of ensuring a legitimate and credible process. The outcome of this stage will depend largely on the ability of institutional actors to resist pressure, restore public confidence, and ensure fair conditions for the democratic contest.
