Over four months ahead of the elections set for November 30, the ruling party in Honduras is experiencing an increase in public disapproval. The Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party, governing since 2022, is being criticized by political opponents, businesses, and civil society groups. These entities accuse the party of attempting to manipulate the electoral process to maintain power despite a significant decline in polling figures.
Decline in voting intentions and loss of confidence
Recent polls, such as those conducted by Pro Encuestas and TResearch, indicate that Rixi Moncada’s presidential candidacy has experienced a sustained decline. Initially positioned as the favorite, Moncada has been overtaken in the polls by nationalist Tito Asfura and liberal Salvador Nasralla, relegating her to third place.
Analysts attribute this decline to a combination of factors: allegations of corruption in public administration, internal divisions within the ruling party, poor economic performance, and a growing public perception of opacity in government management. The erosion of popular support has coincided with a hardening of political rhetoric from the executive branch and signs of institutional tension that have set off alarm bells in various sectors.
Suspicions about the electoral process and institutional control
One of the main sources of controversy is the ruling party’s refusal to allow manual verification of votes, a common practice in previous elections that serves as a cross-checking mechanism for the digitization of results. The opposition and independent organizations warn that eliminating this review could facilitate irregularities and hinder citizen and international audits.
In addition, there have been reports of actions aimed at hindering the implementation of the Preliminary Election Results Transmission System (TREP), which is key to the transparency of the vote count. Tensions have intensified within the National Electoral Council (CNE) itself, where councilors such as Cosette López and Ana Paola Hall have denounced pressure and attempts to block their work.
Business associations and members of the opposition view these actions as a component of an approach to solidify institutional command over the election process, restrict external supervision, and ensure the ruling party flexibility in case of an electoral loss.
Claims of political biases and an atmosphere of dispute
The holding in Tegucigalpa of a session of the São Paulo Forum, with the participation of delegations from left-wing governments in the region, reignited the debate on the international alliances of the LIBRE party. Critical voices pointed out that these links with the Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua axis could be aimed at replicating models of governance that prioritize the concentration of power and restrict spaces for democratic participation.
Simultaneously, critics like Eduardo Facussé, who previously headed the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (COHEP), have cautioned about the potential introduction of a “Venezuela Plan.” This plan could be designed to create instability within institutions, provoke deliberate protests, and cause administrative obstructions, all of which could impede the government’s transition process.
Based on these claims, factions linked to the party in power have engaged in disruptive activities in essential venues like the National Congress and the CNE, a pattern that might undermine the electoral process’s credibility and heighten political division in the nation.
An unpredictable situation before a critical election
With an increasingly fragmented electoral landscape and a ruling party losing ground in public opinion, Honduras is heading toward elections marked by mistrust, institutional tension, and questioning of the rules of democracy.
Various civil society organizations, business sectors, and political leaders have reiterated the need for robust international observation and mechanisms to safeguard the transparency and legitimacy of the electoral process.
The present circumstances reveal not only the weakness of the democratic agreement in the country, but also the challenge of guiding political rivalry within stable institutional boundaries, in a scenario of increasing public disengagement and skepticism towards government entities.
